IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
UC Riverside
Big West
2020-21

Overall
Predictive Rating	-3.2	#208
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	59.6	#343
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-4.1	#288

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	+0.8	#144

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.1%	0.2%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	8.5%	13.9%	7.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
Average Seed	15.6	14.1	14.9

.500 or above	55.2%	74.6%	49.2%
.500 or above in Conference	68.2%	79.0%	64.9%
Conference Champion	9.7%	15.9%	7.8%
Last Place in Conference	7.8%	3.9%	9.0%

First Four	1.7%	1.4%	1.7%
First Round	8.3%	13.2%	6.8%
Second Round	0.6%	1.1%	0.4%
Sweet Sixteen	0.1%	0.2%	0.1%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Pacific (Away) - 23.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 0	0 - 0
Quad 1b	0 - 0	0 - 0
Quad 2	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 3	3 - 5	3 - 7
Quad 4	10 - 5	13 - 12

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 25, 2020	138	@ Pacific	L	57-65	24%
Dec 06, 2020	305	@ Denver	W	68-66	57%
Dec 10, 2020	266	@ Northern Arizona	L	63-64	50%
Dec 19, 2020	262	Southern	W	66-60	69%
Dec 27, 2020	228	Long Beach St.	W	69-65	63%
Dec 28, 2020	228	Long Beach St.	W	69-65	63%
Jan 01, 2021	204	@ UC Davis	L	63-66	39%
Jan 02, 2021	204	@ UC Davis	L	63-66	39%
Jan 08, 2021	200	Hawaii	W	65-63	58%
Jan 09, 2021	200	Hawaii	W	65-63	58%
Jan 15, 2021	315	@ Cal Poly	W	67-63	62%
Jan 16, 2021	315	@ Cal Poly	W	67-63	63%
Jan 22, 2021	214	Cal St. Bakersfield	W	62-59	61%
Jan 23, 2021	214	Cal St. Bakersfield	W	62-59	61%
Feb 05, 2021	298	@ Cal St. Fullerton	W	65-63	55%
Feb 06, 2021	298	@ Cal St. Fullerton	W	65-63	56%
Feb 12, 2021	119	UC Irvine	L	62-65	39%
Feb 13, 2021	119	UC Irvine	L	62-65	39%
Feb 19, 2021	232	@ UC San Diego	L	56-58	45%
Feb 20, 2021	232	@ UC San Diego	L	56-58	44%
Feb 26, 2021	141	UC Santa Barbara	L	61-63	45%
Feb 27, 2021	141	UC Santa Barbara	L	61-63	45%
Mar 05, 2021	308	@ Cal St. Northridge	W	71-68	58%
Mar 06, 2021	308	@ Cal St. Northridge	W	71-68	59%
Projected Record						13 - 11	9 - 9

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Big West Finish

	0-16	1-15	2-14	3-13	4-12	5-11	6-10	7-9	8-8	9-7	10-6	11-5	12-4	13-3	14-2	15-1	16-0		Total
1st												0.1	0.4	1.4	2.5	2.6	1.8		8.7	1st
2nd										0.0	0.1	1.0	3.2	4.0	2.4	0.9	0.1		11.7	2nd
3rd									0.0	0.2	1.9	4.4	4.4	1.6	0.2	0.0			12.7	3rd
4th								0.0	0.2	2.5	4.7	3.8	1.1	0.1					12.3	4th
5th							0.0	0.4	2.5	4.9	3.4	0.7	0.1						11.9	5th
6th						0.0	0.3	2.4	4.9	3.0	0.5	0.0							11.3	6th
7th					0.0	0.5	2.9	4.2	2.2	0.3	0.0								10.0	7th
8th				0.1	0.7	2.7	3.4	1.6	0.3	0.0									8.9	8th
9th		0.0	0.2	0.9	2.4	2.3	0.9	0.1	0.0										6.8	9th
10th	0.1	0.6	1.0	1.6	1.0	0.4	0.0												4.7	10th

Total	0.1	0.6	1.2	2.6	4.1	5.8	7.6	8.8	10.1	10.9	10.6	10.0	9.1	7.0	5.2	3.5	1.9			Total

Big West Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
16-0	95.3%	1.8		1.5	0.3
15-1	73.4%	2.6		1.6	0.9	0.1
14-2	48.5%	2.5		1.3	1.0	0.2	0.0
13-3	19.9%	1.4		0.4	0.6	0.3	0.1	0.0
12-4	4.3%	0.4		0.1	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0
11-5	0.5%	0.1		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
10-6	0.0%
9-7	0.0%
8-8	0.0%

Total	8.7%	8.7		4.9	3.0	0.7	0.1	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
16-0	1.9%		38.4%	38.0%	0.4%	13.2												0.0	0.2	0.3	0.2	0.1	0.0	1.2		0.7%
15-1	3.5%		31.1%	31.1%		13.8													0.1	0.3	0.5	0.2	0.0	2.4
14-2	5.2%		25.6%	25.6%		14.3													0.0	0.2	0.6	0.5	0.1	3.9
13-3	7.0%		21.7%	21.7%		14.7														0.1	0.5	0.7	0.3	5.5
12-4	9.1%		13.5%	13.5%		15.1													0.0	0.1	0.2	0.5	0.5	7.8
11-5	10.0%		9.0%	9.0%		15.4														0.0	0.1	0.3	0.5	9.1
10-6	10.6%		5.7%	5.7%		15.8															0.0	0.1	0.5	10.0
9-7	10.9%		4.5%	4.5%		15.9															0.0	0.0	0.5	10.4
8-8	10.1%		3.1%	3.1%		16.0																	0.3	9.8
7-9	8.8%		2.8%	2.8%		16.0																	0.2	8.5
6-10	7.6%		1.0%	1.0%		16.0																	0.1	7.5
5-11	5.8%		0.6%	0.6%		16.0																	0.0	5.8
4-12	4.1%		0.4%	0.4%		16.0																	0.0	4.0
3-13	2.6%		0.0%	0.0%		16.0																	0.0	2.6
2-14	1.2%																							1.2
1-15	0.6%																							0.6
0-16	0.1%																							0.1

Total	100%		8.5%	8.5%	0.0%	14.8												0.0	0.2	1.0	2.1	2.3	3.0	91.5		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Win Out	0.1%	100.0%	7.6				13.0	11.6	27.5	1.4		13.0	11.6	21.7
Lose Out	0.0%